Multi-state models

More than one thing can happen, in more than one order, and people move between states rather than out of one.

Taught by

Michael Crowther, PhD

CEO & Director of Statistical Methodology

Formerly Associate Professor of Biostatistics at the University of Leicester, and the author of the merlin framework.

Research survival analysis · joint models · multi-state models · statistical software

PhD in Medical Statistics, University of Leicester, 2014

Register your interest

What you will be able to do

• Draw a state space and its transition matrix, and say which transitions are possible
• Reshape a dataset into one row per transition at risk, and check what msset inferred
• Fit a transition intensity per transition, and read what each one is conditional on
• Choose between a Markov and a semi-Markov clock, and say what each assumes about the hazard out of the intermediate state
• Predict transition probabilities and expected time in each state from the fitted intensities, and run the checks that make them readable
• Estimate and report state occupancy over time, and say what it does and does not claim

Before you start

• Take first: Survival analysis
• Helps to have done: Competing risks

Curriculum

12 steps: 9 lectures and 3 practicals.

Provisional — this course is still being written, and the outline will change.

Week 1 · the state space, and moving through it

• 01WatchCompeting risks as the simplest multi-state model24 min
• 02WatchThe illness-death model22 min
• 03WatchReshaping the data, and checking what msset inferred26 min
• 04PracticalPractical 1 · reshaping, and the two denominators45 min

Week 2 · the transitions, and the clock each one runs on

Opens 7 days after you start.

• 05WatchTransition intensities and state occupancy28 min
• 06WatchOne model per transition26 min
• 07WatchWhich clock: Markov and semi-Markov28 min

Week 3 · what the fitted model predicts

Opens 14 days after you start.

• 08WatchTransition probabilities: where somebody is at time t26 min
• 09WatchLength of stay in each state24 min
• 10PracticalPractical 2 · transition probabilities at five years50 min
• 11PracticalPractical 3 · length of stay in each state50 min

Week 4 · reporting a multi-state analysis

Opens 21 days after you start.

• 12ReadReporting a multi-state analysis22 min